Punctuated equilibrium argues for relatively rapid large scale shifts after longs periods of stasis. This has certainly been true in the domain of scholarly publishing. Applying this insight to the new electronic publishing technologies suggests that after the current phase of rapid development in computing and communications hardware and software, there will be a return to another period of relative stasis. Signs that this might be the case are:
These all argue for incremental rather than dramatic change over the next 20 years (which was the case also for the first 50 years of printing in Europe).
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© Andrew Treloar, 2001. * http://andrew.treloar.net/ * email@example.com